I think this is the eastern most group of convection from what yesterday was two distinct groups...the western most hustled off to the NW and was pulled up into the shear associated with the ULL...this held back and was and still is partially under a small ridge pulling westward in the wake of that ULL. The system therefore is showing the effects of shear on the west, but the North and NE quardrants are actually holding their own, with some outflow over the top of those storms...the visual hints at a LLC. The NRL has intensity at 25 kts. It looks better today than yesterday at this same time. I still think it is a 40% go.
If I recall correctly MItch was the most recent late October cat 5 that reaped death and destruction in Mexico and Hondouras. That storm is a good example of how unpredictible these things really get later in the season when things change quickly.