99L is looking better today. those sfc reports and the satellite are showing a close low. slowing down and throwing deep convection, developing an outflow jet... you do the math. ssd still hasn't rated it... either TW or 1.0 right now i'd guess. really good chance it'll be a depression tomorrow when they recon it. i'd expect it to track south of the caymans for the next couple of days, and be near cozumel around friday. long term i'm betting it ends up somewhere on the texas coast early next week.
that system east of the islands hasn't come together yet. it'll probably be a couple more days before an invest quality system re-emerges (it was 98L a few days ago... they may reassign that number or just skip ahead. around the weekend this thing will probably be developing south of bermuda.. and it ought to run west towards the southeast coast. not sure whether it makes it or tries to turn at the coast. as always, preliminary best bet is north carolina, though it'll come in further south if it plows straight in.
HF 1748z27september