99L had it's central convection from this morning puff out this afternoon into a radial half-ring near jamaica and to the east. that all went earlier this evening and now it's barely got any, just that mid-level swirl over the broad surface gyre from earlier. the stuff in the middle may redevelop overnight or it may just pitter around tomorrow... wednesday may be too earlier for it to be classified based on how quickly it's responding. same basic situation as earlier, though... slow track towards the yucatan and probably development by thursday. the ncep official has it lingering around the yucatan into next week, so this thing may only trudge... but my best bet is that it's further along and closer to a mexican or texas landfall by then.
out in the central atlantic near 14/46 that little low remnant from 98L now has some nearby convection.. albeit sheared convection. there's a weak ridge trying (probably in vain) to build over it. it's going to plod along generally wnw and end up south of bermuda around the weekend... the shortwave drawing it up should pull out and strong ridging should build overhead. globals take the energy west towards the southeast from there... none are showing much more than a surface trough, but i'm suspecting it'll be something more bothersome.
little low off the panhandle doesn't have a chance as it's getting choked out by very strong subsidence. stuff showing on the gfs in the eastern atlantic is make-believe (rare for stuff to form east of 40w after the last week of september).
anywho, if i remember anything from bastardi's teleconnection ideas.. that typhoon running at the ryukyu islands right now would teleconnect to something dashing at the southeast a few days hence. the system at 14/46 isn't anything close to a problem right now, but based on the pattern similarity it's got the hackles up a little.
HF 0334z28september