Last few runs of the NAM have been developing a system and taking it to the Yucutan in about 72 hours. The GFS continues to do basically nothing with 99L. The latest GFS run (18Z) appears to try to develop something out of the convection currently developing on and north of Cuba, which seems to have more to do with the upper low over Florida than with 99L. While there is some enhanced convection north of Cuba in the SW Bahamas, the chances of anything developing there seem much more remote than in the vicinity of 99L.
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Re: Watching the Caribbean