| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 28 2005 07:18 PM |
Re: Watching the Caribbean
|
Quote:
Last few runs of the NAM have been developing a system and taking it to the Yucutan in about 72 hours. The GFS continues to do basically nothing with 99L. The latest GFS run (18Z) appears to try to develop something out of the convection currently developing on and north of Cuba, which seems to have more to do with the upper low over Florida than with 99L. While there is some enhanced convection north of Cuba in the SW Bahamas, the chances of anything developing there seem much more remote than in the vicinity of 99L.
...Yeah, it's gonna be real real hard to get the models to do much with a tropical wave that merely has a weak gyre closed on its axis somewhere... For one thing, the disturbance is not deep enough in the atmosphere for the dynamicals models to latch onto.. That is why the GFDL (for example) is the weakest of them all, like it was with both Katrina and Rita, but as soon as they became vertically integrated in the troposphere, boom!
...I'm actually disappointed in the Cape Verde season this year...Everything's been a Bahama Bomber...