I agree. From what I have seen this year, once a LLC gets going, in general they seem to be pretty tenacious, even with day after day of shear ripping convection apart, or even when it has had a chance to be organized, but shear then pulls the upper levels partially to the side and the LLC is somewhat (or even mostly) exposed.

Nature has her own schedule and she's not as impatient as us, so the waiting game continues. It's almost into the area of low shear, so by tonight or tomorrow it ought to get its opportunity to organize, and if things don't come together then, that is probably that.

One good thing is that it looks like the probabilites lean towards a Yucatan or Tex Mex directon. One thing we really don't want for the remainder of this year is a system coming up north from the Carribean from the western end of Cuba (either rounding it as Camille did, or going straight over), hitting the loop current N of Cuba, and then going N to hit the very deep pool of the loop current that remains S of LA.