Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 29 2005 01:39 PM
Re: Tropic Watch

Expect a low-level circulation to form, if it has not done so already, near the mid-level center forming at 19N/81W sometime later today. Recon isn't quite that far south -- dropsonde report at about 21N -- but may well find something down there if it hangs around long enough. The weak circulation near 17.5N/82W is already starting to become entrained into the larger system consolidating further to the NE.

If the trough over the US does not extend far enough to the south, a general west-northwest motion is likely over the next few days. The upper low to the north of the storm has moved to a substantial distance away to more than likely be aiding the storm's outflow rather than shearing it or stealing mid-level energy from the wave. Upper-level conditions are projected to be favorable as the storm moves toward the WNW with development becoming likely the longer the organization of the system continues.

The feature further to the E will have to be watched, but this one in the Caribbean is the main game in town for another couple of days.



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