that batch of convection/sfc trough being enhanced by an upper low near 23/57 may also be the precursor thing i was talking about last night. the little low being masked by an upper low out near 29/71 also may be the thing that'll get low pressure started. later ukmet runs favor the thing doug is talking about... nogaps still sees my feature today but not as well. either or, the pattern wants there to be a storm approaching the east coast next week.
i'm guessing recon has been through the low in the nw caribbean already, and no vortex. it's probably still too broad. even though convection is firing near the center, it keeps migrating northward away from the formative system. overall the last three or four days it has slowly but consistently improved, so pretty soon it should cross the threshold and become a classified system. been saying that for two days now, but the basic synoptic reasoning for it hasn't changed in that time.
headline for this thread could just as easily have been 'waiting on the tropics.'
HF 1747z29september

well, clark just straightened that out. i was guessing recon had already run through, but that was presumptuous. could somebody give me a link to that site that plots the recon obs? -HF