notice those satellite positions for the system jump north and east at the end? that's just what they are... satellite guesses based on the convective pattern. hard to tell where the actual surface low is, but it has traditionally been displaced south and west of the convective area.. unless it finally got smart and redeveloped under the convection. friday could be nothing but a rehash of thursday, with the system meriting a recon but not having any real organization.
looked at the 00z models that are available and they don't show anything that new/original... other than a weird hybrid system running due west at 25/30n from the canaries into the open atlantic. the old prognosticators for a system off the east coast are still seeing it, the camp that just sees an open trough advancing still sees just that. the future of our nw caribbean system is vague as several different models track a feature out of the area to anywhere from texas to southern mexico. none see a significant system. to restate with detail the idea that two systems will form and threaten the u.s. coast next week would be nailing jello to the wall... will just say that i'm not going to budge even though there may be cracks in the armor.
for now, stan is hiding in the bushes.
HF 0541z30september