i didn't think anything was going to form that far out this year. it waited until the last day of september, but that looks legit. it has a 1.5 on it, but all the forecast models take it more north than anything else.
99L has a 1.5 on it also... TWO says pressures are falling and you can see the turning in the low-level wind field (because there isn't much convection/dry air intrustion on the west side). when they recon it later it's just as likely to be 'too broad' like it was earlier, but slowly and inevitably this thing is developing.
HF 1433z30september