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SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED... EVEN THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER... ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AFFECT JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS. THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS HAS WEAKNED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY. |