The ULL interacting with a tropical wave NE of the LA islands shows some increased convection today. All of the models have picked up on a T-Wave or Cyclone moving from around 20N-60W into the SE Bahamas, across FL and exiting into the GOM over the next 3-5 days. Afterward, the GFS then stalls this feature in the eastern GOM. The globals have been predicting this scenario for days. The CMC/UKMET develop the system into a cyclone while the others GFS/NOGAPS retain an open wave. Since this system may not be truly warm core (i.e. tropical), the models may be picking up on baroclinic forcing to develop this storm. In that sense, this wave/ULL may become sub-tropical rather than purely tropical - or it may start off subtropical and transition to a tropical system in the Bahamas or GOM. Since this feature has strong global model support - it bears watching. At the very least, looks like some wet and windy weather for FL next week - we could sure use it in Tampa with the driest September on record.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html