The discussion was funny! "THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY FESTERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS"

True that NHC also mentions favorable outflow (really favorable!), low wind shear, and warm SSTs, once TD#20 gets into the GOM...but consider that there is really dry air there right now, and deep water temps not as favorable for a slow-moving storm. The best water is what it has been moving over right now. Even with lesson learned from Rita about the importance of very good outlfow, it would be surprising if this thing could make it up to Cat 2 before landfall in Mex.