So, you think Mexico? Granted, both global and tropical based model camps suggest so and that is also the HPC solution... But, I find it intriguing that the models have had a left track bias to Katrina and subsequently Rita, too. This is important to me because both hurricanes developed more earnestly once the mid/U/A ridging over the E 1/3 of NA flexed into greater amplification. We see in the global based models over the last few days, a prediction for another positive anomaly slated to emerge over the lower Ohio Valley and spanning the greater aspect of the easter 1/3 of the contiguous US. In concernt, up underneath the tropical disturbance in question is finally labled a depression.

If there is any skill to using analog predictive tools this seasons behavior as a whole makes one weary of latching onto the left track. It is conceivable to me that we will have a slow moving system that averages a "slight" N component along its track, which integrated over time might mean that S Texas is not off the hook. Granted, no one has claimed that can't happen - this is by no mean argumentative - just to enlighten to another possibility, one that I believe has merti based on trends this later summer and autumn.