well i'm in the middle. it looks like a lot of the guidance they're going off of is the dynamic stuff that only works well for weaklings, 'cause the globals are still barely showing the system and naturally stuff weak systems into mexico. there haven't been any significant systems in that part of the gulf for better than a month, so oceanic heat content won't be a problem. as for the dry air mass... that is slowly being converted by its environment into something less hurricane-hostile. if y'all remember, katrina wasn't exactly dealing with a moist airmass either just after it crossed florida, and it spun up anyway.
the current nhc track is feasible if the system does little strengthening and moves as quickly as indicated. it's more likely that a stronger, more trough-responsive system will occur if it moves a little slower or strengthens more than indicated, and that would favor it coming further north. granted i still see the greatest likelihood of it going into ne mexico and retracing emily's path earlier this year, but if i was in texas i wouldn't be blowing this little fellow off.
last night i was thinking 'well, the caribbean thing is just about out of time, and the east atlantic feature has trumped it'. this morning the east atlantic depression blew apart and is hard to discern with all the chaotic cloud motions nearby (llc appears to be moving north, mlc from the convective blow up stuck in the itcz, outflow boundaries from the monsoon trough-like feature to the west blowing into it from that side, and northward bursts of wind/convection riding up the east side like little comets). and then of course the caribbean system finally crossed the threshold. it should be a postulate that i can think something for days, have it not materialize, finally give in, and have that outcome immediately occur.
anyhow, watching the disturbed weather near bermuda and to the south slowly moving closer together. believe the trigger for a westward-running system is in that somewhere. modeling has pretty much backed down in favor of another system that sort of develops near the florida straits and sits near florida/eastern gulf looking only quasi tropical (some of the globals have another caribbean feature, some just show that familiar easterly wave come running in from the east). thing is, they've all got something wrong: td 20 appears to be on course to develop into a significant tropical system in the western gulf, and none are showing the resultant feedback into the regional synoptic pattern. the upper low which was over florida earlier in the week, has moved into the western atlantic, and is now moving back... should deepen some if the tropical cyclone forces ridging to the southwest. amplify that, and the ridging to the east will amplify as well. and that's where our pattern-forced feature could possibly be.
it's a quirk i'll mention just because it could be one of the odder tracks you'll ever see if it develops.. but the hybrid type drill-down system that is moving west from the area near the canaries continues to become better defined... and modeling take it straight across the atlantic at that latitude to near bermuda late next week... where it appears to either set up to recurve or get blocked by high pressure again (maybe ready for another westward jog). it would be unusual to see a long westward track in the subtropics like that, so keeping an eye on this odd possibility. october is usually the month that produces odd-track systems (when they get repeatedly caught and released by mid-latitude shortwaves and such).
HF 1645z01october