Well Stan looks to be quite well organised, but really quite a broad system. This could work in its favor as it crosses the Yucatan in that for a large part of the time at least some part of its circulation should be over water - either the Caribbean or the GOM. But at the same time, friction could act to tighten up the circulation, so it is a bit of a two way split. It wouldnt be at all surprising to see a new centre develop over the GOM as the circulation approaches, especially if the larger circulation does not tighten up too much. Still, at the moment, rain will be the major problem... but once over the GOM it could become quite a strong system, especially if it stalls out as some models are now hinting at...

Regards