still a mix of modeling showing stan either moving onshore in mexico or getting stuck down near the BoC. worth mentioning that modeling that shows stan 'coming up' around next weekend have an unrealistic evolution for the storm and are just as suggestive that something else will be coming up east of it. stan is going to meet complicated steering... the ridging to the north isn't overpowering, there's the drag of land (in central mexico mountainout land), and even a potential interaction with a potential new tropical system south of the gulf of tehuantepec on the pacific side. late in the period the large high building in should force the system southward or eastward... early the effect will be to stall it or push it slowly west or southwest.
anyhow, there's more energy coming in from the sw caribbean (sheared from the nw, but converging well against the anomalous westerly flow across central america, perhaps a negative pulse of soi at work). this is a potential 'other system culprit'. there's the mess off the east coast which isn't looking worse for wear either... several vorticity maximums in it strung from west of bermuda down to the southeast bahamas now. some of that may punch across florida into the eastern gulf and try to develop over there, as indicated in some modeling. there's also a good convective flare near puerto rico, and a festering trough with good conditions aloft east of the islands... and of course waning td 19 and the lackluster but present hybrid low to the north of that. even a good looking wave near the cv islands right now.
throw all that together and there's too much going on to be sure what's exactly going to happen.. but my best bet is that the storm system being drawn up the east coast late next week is legit--there's a ton of energy feeding into the pattern and it's going to want to come up when the trough arrives. exactly how it will evolve out of all this mess, or even if it is somehow stan trying to come up i'm not sure. we could have another system or two out there.. or there's even the possibility that it's non-tropical (though i'm more of the school it will be a baroclinically-enhanced tropical system). anyhow, east coast... from florida up to new england... there is model support for bad weather of indeterminate nature late in the week. not sure whether it'll be a well-formed tropical system, a sloppy rainy one, a hybrid one, or even somehow more than one.. maybe it'll even be no system but just a bunch of confused weather getting drawn up into a front. this is a high-energy pattern, though, so i'm expecting something or somethings.
HF 1453z02october