emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 03 2005 10:00 AM
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity

Exactly what I was looking for. Thank You!

Here's what I found on HPC disco:

"TPC/NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS IDEA... BRINGING A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TRACK OF THIS FEATURE BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE EVENTUAL
AMPLITUDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE ECMWF IS NOT USUALLY THE
BEST MODEL FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS... BUT THERE IS REASONABLE
CONSENSUS THAT THE ERN TROF WILL EXERT LESS INFLUENCE THAN FCST BY
GFS RUNS... KEEPING THE TROPICAL FEATURE FARTHER SWWD. THEREFORE
THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS COMPROMISE LEANS MORE IN THE ECMWF
DIRECTION."

That's just great. I'm sick of the storms. When they say a Well defined system, do they mean well defined as it goes to GOM or well defined after it gets there? That makes a big difference for FL.

Thanks!



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