hard to say. a lot of vorticity will be getting over into the gulf in the coming days, and that loopy system shown on certain models is possible (origin doesn't appear perfectly tropical the way the models show it, something to note). while that's crossing and to the west there are vorticity maxes in under the upper ridge east of the state which may close off... i'm suspecting one will that rides up the east coast of florida. another may originate further southeast and head more to the north. worth noting that the gfs tracks the gulf system back across florida, then stalls it off the southeast coast, has it looking subtropical, and then brings it back west to the southeast after ten days. if that ridge rebuilds over the northeast next week we'll be dealing with a meandering tropical system for some time.
HF 1720z04october