agreed Hank,, right now the models dont really seem to know exactly what to make of everything with each model having its own ideas. Example is the Nogaps wants to bring stan back into the BOC in 48 hours and make it a hurricane in 72. Kinda doubt that but its not out of the question.....but they agree that something may develop in the gulf in a couple days near 28N and 85W and take it across the big bend and N florida and off Jacksonville over the weekend. It might get interesting off the Fl, GA boarder next week but probably just meander then get pushed out to sea mid week on next adv trof,,afterall its Mid Oct by then. I would still watch the remenents of Stan to see where and if it wants to come up more like the Nogaps but slightly further east. IF so with the next week trof coming down, that might be the kicker thru florida. Am I hinting at 2 systems this weekend or early next week? Yes but of course not sure.
Anyways with the system in the Bahamas, the wave axis is from Cuba near 21N 81W ne to 26N 76W. There is no circulation at this time....the lowest pressures of near 1006mb are in that axis and closer to the Fl Straits nearing the keys by this evening. Should be in the gulf by tomorrow. I say by Thurs we will have a TD or TS, but I think again recon will be cancelled tomorrow unless the wave gets a defined center overnight with TS developing near the center.