Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Oct 04 2005 10:50 PM
Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Still some amazingly cold cloud tops continue in the convection being generated by Stan, both in the part of the circulation that has moved out over the Pacific, and in the feeder band over the Yucatan.

GOES floater 1 has been repositioned to where Stan is heading in the Pacific, so I would assume that NHC thinks something is going to continue cooking once the remnants of Stan are all offshore. That offshore area does not have the same heat potential as the Carribean, but a little ways offshore to the west at 15N 100W is a pocket of slightly warmer water (looks like the only one).

Stan seems to be on a steady course, not like what I remember the models had anticipated. It seems like so far the upper level circulation has held up quite well. So it will be interesting to see the next model runs and the 10pm NHC discussion, to see if there is still a good possibility of something coming back into the GOM.

edit -- just read the 10pm...looks like I was too optimistic for Stan's remnants, as NHC forecasts it will dissipate.



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