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It's already close enough to land to limit it. And yes, the NHC has predicted the paths better than last year, but they keep saying a 5 will be a 3. Underestimated Stan, underestimated Tammy, something new is going on that they don't understand.
Part of the reason it was such a tragedy in New Orleans is that the NHC so badly underestimated Katrina, until it actually hit a category 5. Yeah, after it hit 5, they paniced, but it was no big deal as it entered the Gulf.
Considering how one would expect them to err on the side of caution, they are totally clueless about what's making the hurricanes so strong.
That's exactly what the NHC does on intensity they estimate. The science is not available to predict intensity accurately yet and they are the first to admit that fact. They do remarkably well with the track forecast however.
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Re: Severe Weather Possible