Yeah, if you look at the WV loop here http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html you can see the ULL in the NE GOM that is backing westward and a bit south.

As that backs it should cut off the dry air being pushed down into the Bay of Campeche and provide a "conduit" for the storm coming off the Yucatan to track into.

This is your path is "least resistance". The $64,000 question is how fast will it back off and to what degree.

If the low was to cut off the dry air entirely and progress west up across LA and towards Texas then this thing could come nearly straight poleward. I don't see that happening as there is strong system brewing in the midsection of the country that is likely to pick this up and suck it out of here - but that also would tend to vector whatever this thing is northward as well, as I expect that this trough diving down is strong enough to get to the gulf over the weekend.

My "best guess" looking at the total pattern picture is somewhere along the west coast of the peninsula, but it could be anything from a minor rain event to something significant (and ugly.)

The dynamics on this one are pretty complex - I'm watching this thing even over this far west (near Destin) and I'd pay close attention anywhere from there to Key West right now, until there's more definition to the upper air pattern and the depth of whatever comes off the Yucatan is better understood.

The big risk area is that it appears there won't be a lot of warning on this from the time it turns into a real threat until it gets where its going.....

I was planning on going to Orlando for some Mouse House time Thursday through Saturday - I suspect that's gonna get rained out and I will likely cancel - tropical or no, it sure looks like we'd be heading right into some pretty significant precip.