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The center of Tammy appears to be very close to the coast, though with the way the storm is structured, the center location is not necessarily that important. With nearly all of the action to the north and east of the center, the center will have to get well inland before significant weakening occurs. The main story appears to be the rain, anyway. 93L is starting to resemble Tammy of a couple of days ago, with an apparent weak surface low or trough that is somewhat removed from the main convection and an upper-level low to its north that is currently shearing the system but may provide a slightly more favorable environment if the ULL digs further west. One difference is that the pressure gradient across the area is not nearly as steep as it was with Tammy, so it will take more surface development than what Tammy needed before cranking up the winds to tropical storm strength. There is also more upper energy and dry air digging into the backside of the system, which may result in more of a hybrid system if anything develops further. |