safe to say your pop has something to with missile subs, then? probably a really wet night around my old stomping grounds up in hinesville tonight. if the storm does in fact carry its convection with it as it weakens and curves left into the low level flow, should train rainbands over south carolina all day tomorrow. i've got a hunch the deep convection shears off and keeps riding north overnight, but we'll see.
i'm a little more optimistic about 94L's chances than clark... the sharpening upper trough to its west should induce the diffluent/ridging aloft deal over it as it trudges nw. it may slingshot left around it in a few days if it gets close enough to the chunk of ridge poised to set up in the central atlantic early next week.
93L has had a serious shear/dry air intrusion and i have nothing to add to clark's analysis. if anybody's been worrying you about a hurricane in the eastern gulf during the rest of the week i've got some prime arizona swampland for sale they're welcome to purchase. i'm more concerned that part of it feeds into a baroclinic type system that may develop near south florida or east of florida during the next couple of days... a good pulse should come up this oncoming trough and if something tropical forms then it may end up clipping the eastern carolinas or new england (not your cue to go nuts, ryan). then again listening to clark's analysis of how tammy has been dubiously tropical there's not much reason whatever comes up won't be just a frontal trough.
in the long range gfs nogaps euro ukmet.. you get the picture, all of them.. have disturbed weather strung from the western caribbean to off the southeast. the period of unrest is likely to keep our eyeballs glued through the first half of october.
by the way, stan may make a comeback off the mexican riviera tomorrow. i'm going to send the nhc hate mail if they give it a pacific name... it's still stan, dammit. stan has put in its papers for retirement already, actually... it came about timed with a westerly pacific moisture surge and really rained on central america. latest reports number around 120 dead. deforested hillslopes are probably as culpable as heavy rains with these fatalities, i'm guessing.
HF 0110z06october