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Here we go again: from the Melbourne forecast: BOTH UKMET AND TO A LARGER DEGREE...GFS INDICATES VORT INTERACTION BETWEEN APCHG ATLC TROPICAL WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR 50W) AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF OLD WAVE EAST OF STATE EARLY IN THE WEEK OVER THE BAHAMAS. AM NOT LAYING TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHERE AND WHEN DEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR BUT GFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN PERFORMING WELL WRT TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF SURFACE GENESIS NEAR THE STATE THIS TROPICAL SEASON. EXTENDED GUID KEEPS SURFACE TROPICAL LOW TRAPPED NEAR THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN A MOTION SEAWARD LATE IN TEH PERIOD. I believe this is 94L we're talking about being trapped in the Bahamas midweek! naw. that's whatever gets left after the tammy/93L mess gets out. note it says the stuff moves out to sea after that. its a very questionable bunch of model runs this is based on... very little consistency about the individual features. -HF |