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From the New Orleans NWS Area Forecast Discussion...very nice morning wrap up! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 358 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005 .DISCUSSION... REMNANTS OF TAMMY HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ESTIMATED LOCATION IS 195 MILES EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AROUND THE CENTER BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAR FROM FAVORABLE FOR ANY FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY STRENGTHENING. THE PROBLEM IS NOT INTENSIFICATION BUT MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SFC LOW IS NOT IN A HURRY TO MOVE ANYWHERE JUST YET AND THE STRONG HIGH RIDGING FROM THE NW IS CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NW AND W OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS CAUSING CONVERGENCE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG WITH WINDS ON THAT SIDE AS WELL. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FOR GPT AND MSY WITH THESE CONVERGENT BANDS UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP AND SENT NE. (bold emphasis added~danielw) By the way...The 5 AM EDT Trop. Weather Outlook contains no mention of the system formally known as Tammy, or the Low that is currently South of Pensacola and moving toward the East. The Low has basically performed a U-Turn during the night. Being pushed back eastward by a cool front currently moving through Mississippi. |