96L has a tropical appearance, within the larger deep-layer trough environment. that's one of the clearest cases for a subtropical storm that i've ever seen. nhc has to be scratching their head over what to do with it because it's way the hell east of where systems are usually trackable. of course back in 1998 nicole did come out of that general area.. perhaps it'll get the nod at 11. clark would know how it looks on phase-analysis... hope he shows up this evening.
subtd 22 is still strongly sheared out of the east. flow continue to push it west for the early part of the period... if it goes too far it'll have to content with the northerly shear zone upstream of it's location. so far it hasn't gone quite north enough to take advantage of the ridging/good outflow environment to the north, but is remaining over ssts marginal to support a hurricane. a half day's abatement of shear would allow this storm to get going, but as of now it's still questionable whether it gets named, as it hasn't escaped the shear that started on it this morning.
94L has a good outflow environment to its east, but is struggling where it is. likelihood of near term development is low, but may improve in the long-run if it can remain coherent.
don't think the globals have the system originating early in the week near the greater antilles right. it may be a drill down or a storm that forms under the ridging near the bahamas upstream of the trough. or it could be that the conflicting forces allow nothing to go. there are enough models swinging a deep tropical low northward by bermuda towards cape cod to be a interested, but the evolution still doesn't look right.
HF 0121z09october