| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 03:53 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic
|
Quote:
2005 will go down in history as not only the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record - but the strangest!
The NHC plots show Vince parelleling the coast, but several the computer models actually show the storm making landfall - in Portugal. I bet the global warming enthusiasts are going to have a field day with this one.
With the Caribbean acting up this morning, Wilma likely is not far off (even if one of the current invests does not form into a tropical cyclone, something probably will sooner rather than later)... which pretty much means we'll be looking at Alpha before November 1 unless things get quiet in a hurry.
...Strange, because we've actually seen no Cape Verdi transits.. It's been all "Bahama Bombers".
Sadly, the GW enthusiasts probably will blow this out of proportion. Before they do, they should take note of the fact that this system has been persisting over waters that are text-book too cool to support a tropical transition fully, and it is more likely that unique stagnant circumstances have evolved over 24.5C waters to bring a hybrid to bear.
But, as long as we are on the subject of odd-ball features... did you know that there was the first ever hurricane to ever make landfall on the eastern shores Brazil in South America in April 2004?
The Caribbean looks bizarre... Strange sat presentation making it difficult to determine what's really going on.. Looks at times like a TW's are stalling, other times like a old frontal drapes are sticking around as triggers for deep convection. What I think is of utmost concern (or rather should be) is the potent mid-level low that has evolved N of Puerto Rico. This thing is whipping around at a good clip over waters around 28C. Things to look for: deep convection migrating into the core. As it is, the remnant swirl of Tammy was rotating around the N wall of the large cyclonic gyre, like a solar system around a galaxy (beautiful satellite!).. Close up view provided by http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html shows that the llv is escaping the clutches of the larger system however... Also, given that there is still occasional plumes of convection popping off my personal opinion is that HPC dropped the ball too fast... It seems this feature could continue to migrate away up underneath a more favorable enivronment that exists NW; although, in their defense they said last night there was a "remote" possibility for regeneration... In any event, the CMC model is now gaining company in depicting the large U/A low to gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the next 2 days, and with blocking persisting over the N Atlantic and a well teleconnected weakness near/off the SE U.S. Coast, this would likely impart a westward movement should such a feature truly evolve... It's going to be a fun week!