we get one of these transition systems in most years. maybe a third of those are in the eastern atlantic at high latitude. vince isn't the first ET-origin system to get started out there, but they're usually the type of cutoffs that meander back to the west. this one just went east... all the way to the gulf of cadiz. so now we have the first landfall of record in the european continent. if it were on a slightly more eastward trajectory it might have threaded the strait of gibraltar and gone on into the mediterranean.. but thankfully the weirdness will stop perpetuating this morning as the storm becomes nontropical over southwestern spain.
anywho, our old buddy subtropical depression 22 is still trudging nw a beam of hatteras right now. it's been firing an odd thunderstorm or two, not losing definition to its low-level remnant. crossing the gulf stream this morning and according to forecaster stewart about to briefly entry a low-shear environment.. the dead zone between the northerly flow of the upper low and the southerly flow behind the surface trough. very low probability of regeneration, but it should add moisture and energy to the onshore flow and tropical conveyor in the northeast that has over the last few days caused a lot of rain. there's been some decent flooding in the northeast since the weekend... the mess that sheared off of tammy and that yucatan invest that rode up the front really pushed a lot of rain up there.
models are backing off on the gale system they've been showing arcing around the back side of that upper low, passing bermuda.. but now stalling well offshore the northeast and then backing away to the east. looks feasible, but we still don't have more than a disturbance near the ne caribbean for now. clark has already highlighted the potential with this one.
maybe a little more disturbed weather lingering in the western or central caribbean after that, but no real model support for it.. and the longer range modeling isn't showing much in the long range. unless the pattern amplifies again this may be our last batch of activity in the basin for a while, as mjo is forecasted inhibitive for the rest of the month. it hasn't worked that well this year, but perhaps things will ease off as the added strike against of late october comes into play.
things had better quit, or we'll be revisiting our inner fred flintstone.. then speaking greek. tpratch, can you do that?
HF 0447z11october