it isn't a tropical system, but it's definitely tropical-origin: the low that remains of subtropical depression 22 is now a couple hundred miles east of delaware... drifting nne and blowing some convection, but forecast by several globals to be blocked by the strong high pressure descending over the canadian maritimes and pushes northwest and west towards new jersey. while it may not be a tropical cyclone, this system is going to bring a great deal of tropical moisture to the region from new jersey to maine that is already drenched from the shear-off from tammy and the yucatan invest that rode up the coast at the end of last week. joe b had this system arriving up there from a good ways back. i don't agree with him that it will reintensify (say, into a gale center), but do think that he's right about the northeast being due for some severe flooding.
the stuff from the two to seven o clock orbit around the upper low west of bermuda still has no coherent maxima around which a low pressure could form. globals have been predicting one to originate near hispaniola for days, but that still hasn't happened. now that the upper low is lifting out, clark is right in forecasting the upper air conditions to improve. there's been a persistent anomalous westerly flow out of the pacific into the caribbean for days now... probably an artefact of the generally high upper heights over the northern latitudes and low heights in the tropics. interesting that as winter comes on and the longwave pattern deepens, the tendency for all that blocking up there could contribute to some severe arctic outbreaks.. since some of you are already talking winter. as far as the current situation goes, based on how anomalous that fetch off the pacific has been, i'd say that were in for a system or two regardless as the upper low lifts out and things try to right themselves.
we've got a pretty flat weather pattern, with a zonal jet at higher latitudes and above normal heights near the northern u.s./southern canada.. with cutoff lows and below normal heights in the subtropics... resulting in a pretty stagnant, jammed up mess in the tropics. i'm wondering what things will look like when we finally get ouf of it.
HF 2254z11october