a few comments:
trouble continues in the northeast. another significant low has formed in the tropical moisture train from the caribbean to bermuda to new england--this one is moving towards the new jersey coast and should cross tomorrow morning. another inch to few inches of rain probably involved with this one, and more on the way. the upper low that is funneling it all around is west of bermuda now... another impulse is coming up east of bermuda and should turn northwest as it rounds it... this is likely the feature that should deepen into the large gale center depicted moving into the gulf of maine/canadian maritimes over the weekend.
models still sketchy about caribbean development though the overall pattern will be modestly supportive once the upper trough loses its influence. there is still a large area of turning under enough shear to cap it southeast of jamaica.. and another small low pressure that has formed in the windward passage and is now moving westward just south of eastern cuba. these features should persist and may try something when the shear pattern begins to slacken up.
east atlantic wave of note out in the cape verde region, but it's pretty much too late to spawn a system out there... and everything this year that has been a successful tropical cyclone has formed further west or not really deepened until west of 50-60w. if it were to organize rapidly it might have a brief life, but doubtful anything can get going.
there's actually a small disturbance of note in the eastpac near 10/100. if this were to develop it would agitate the atlantic shear pattern and probably signal more atlantic activity... worth note for that reason even though mjo state dictates not much should happen for the next 2 weeks or so.
HF 2300z13october