Looking at some of the longer-range models, it does not appear that the weather pattern would favor much northward movement (if it develops) until the 4-5 day time range or longer. If it moves as slowly as some of the models indicate, it may still be around to pose a threat to the U.S. by then, but it could easily have moved into Mexico or Central America by that timeframe.

The convection still isn't very well organized right now. Given its proximity to Jamaica and slow movement, it still may take awhile for it to become more organized, if it does at all. It definitely appears to have a chance, though.