12Z Euro brings the system to the Yuc Straits in 168 hrs as a hurricane or stong tropical storm. Other globals such as NOGAPS and UKMET drift it slowly west toward the Yuc Pen. So far, the global models show the Bermuda Ridge re-establishing a summer-like position in 4-5 days with no troughs intruding into the SE US. I dont expect a northerly turn anytime soon so it should intensify into a hurricane with time. The most critical timing will be in the 5-7 day out period with this storm likely to be in the western Caribbean, Yuc Straits, or southern GOM. Any trough digging toward the Gulf Coast would then turn it N and then NE. Odds are this time of year we would see a trough by 7 days, although this has been a strange year with the Bermuda High being exceptionally strong over the SE.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...5101412!!!step/