| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 10:12 AM |
|
Re: Watching Near Jamaica
|
Quote:
Not quite ALL of the models - the UKMET and the GFDL both eventually turn the system northwestward as high pressure anchored to the north of the system eventually (and slowly) moves off to the east. I'll post some thoughts on this system in a new Met Blog.
ED
Ed, I'd add the 00Z Euro to the UKMET & GFDL that turn the system NW aiming for the Yuc Straits or going through it as the Euro brings the system into the southern GOM in 168 hrs. No doubt things will change in future forecasts, but what's a little disturbing this far out is this mornings HPC Disc:
00Z/18Z NCEP MEANS SHOW LESS MID-LATE WEEK RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS VERSUS THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN... AND MAY HAVE SOME VALIDITY IN LIGHT OF THE GREENLAND/DAVIS STRAIT RIDGE. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFS IN HOW THE SOLNS ARE ARRIVED AT... NEARLY ALL 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES REINFORCEMENT OF THE ERN CONUS TROF WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER OR JUST N OF THE GRTLKS BY DAY 7 SAT.
Doesn't look good if this thing gets into the GOM for eastern Gulf Residents.