| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 10:56 AM |
Re: Watching Near Jamaica
|
Quote:
If this thing is still around in 4-5 days, it will likely be pulled northward. However, if it is already moved into Central America by then, it will be a moot point. The key will be just how slowly it moves over the next few days, and how far south it ends up drifting before the steering currents become better defined. Right now, it is difficult to imagine it hanging around long enough to eventually be pulled northward as any kind of significant tropical cyclone.
That's my feeling, too. It's far too early to speculate on the 4-5 day motion of a system that doesn't exist as a tropical entity yet, but it just seems like it will move too quickly to still be in the Caribbean in 4-5 days, which would be necessary for it to get pulled northward. Having said that, looking at the visible loop, it really ISN'T moving right now, that I can tell. It also doesn't look to be organizing quickly - not enough daylight images to identify a clear LLC yet. I don't think we'll have a T.D. today.
Edit: On second thought.... maybe I'm missing something cuz the TWO says it is developing.