i'll second ron's take on the synoptic worry we'd have if this system gets going. it's getting later in the year for such systems to plunge westward into mexico, though that could surely happen... usually they try to come up this time of year. if i was in florida i'd keep wilma in mind next week. globals show a broad-base trough off the east coast keeping it kinda stuck for the next couple of days, then some ridging building in from the east that could push it n or nw. still not much there, and the big scatter in the dynamic and global tracks seems to be evidence that it won't move a whole lot for the next few days. a more legit ridge will be in place around mid-week, so it's more likely to come nw around then, if that's in the cards. still 98L on the navy site, so no upgrade at 11am. actually, just looked at the euro solution and that's the one i like. it's got a real system and more realistic behavior than the other globals do at this point (trying to split it, part ne, part w). euro shows a tropical cyclone in the yucatan channel next weekend.
looks like no recon until tomorrow, so nhc will downplay the system unless it has clearly developed.
HF 1502z15october

note, it does say that resources permitting they will investigate it later today. not sure of the status on that. -HF