...ah, yeah...i wonder what's up with that, too. i noticed that hpc has yet to reposition goes floaters 1 and 2 and they're still peering them out over nothingness - this is both annoying and odd. usually, they got at least one fixated at the slightest prefigurement of - notwithstanding synoptics of the moment.

(political commentary is not permitted on this site - ED)

models and synopsis: did anyone get a gander at the cmc (ggem) for the middle-end of next week? a potent deepener crosses cuba (which most know is a relatively flat land mass)? for this meteorologist, i would not discount any solution that runs this thing up anywhere from new orleans to even just east of florida, then charging north. so...i agree...

all the operational groups suggest something interesting... the nao (north atlantic oscillation) phase is progged to flip negative next week... hmmm... with tall heights and blocking enveloping the lat/lons around the davis straight area and greenland, the natural teleconnection would suggest some kind of counter-balancing negative in the great lakes, ohio valley and mid-atlantic regions... sorry for the lesson, but the reason i'm saying this is because the ecm, cmc, and even the gfdl, all strongly indicate a potent mid-level s/w will be plunging into the se missouri valley area. intuitively, this would configure strong S components at mid-levels along and off the east coast of the u.s.. should "wilma" flirt with such resultant ssw steering fields (if moving along fast enough she would also be less susceptible to shear...) the ne gulf and florida would be jeopardized. in fact, if these background cues become dominantly influential in establishing a path of least resistance (essentially the universal law of storm motion for hurricanes), i wouldn't even lower my guard up along the eastern seaboard - though admittedly, that is (at this time) the lesser of concerns. point being, the trough placement approaching the ohio valley and cross from the missouri valley later in times actually the preferred synopsis given to a very strongly negative assertion of the nao.. we'll just have to see where the 12z runs take this... strangely, the 06z gfs seems to go off the deep end by maintaining a large positive anomaly near davis straight, while keep the winds essentially unsavory zonal at our latitude.. that doesn't taste like the right solution.. especially with a tendency for strong gulf of alaska lows... this arrangement of players is more akin to the ecm/cmc solution, and that is why those solutions are not so easily discounted in my mind...