typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 15 2005 02:17 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica

Quote:

New 12Z GFDL has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation




R U serious! Where are you getting the run so soon.. Please, do tell (pant pant)....

Oh ...man, you know... I don't even have to see the run... I know exactly what is going on... There is a negative aspect to the NAO, probably indicative of a height blockage near Davis Straight and Greenland (maybe not too well picked up by the GFDL - and why would it)...But, I bet there is a low nestling into the Ohio Valley....

Uh oh - ...If you there is such a cataclysmic bomb as the GFDL ...then the forecast becomes entirely perfunctory there after... Balancing indices with well behaved synoptics (which is to say, synoptics that are a sensible fit for established teleconnections - trust me, this method ALWAYS works as an immediate correction technique) then,.......ah, don't know how else to put it but the unthinkable would certainly be plausible... (I think we both know what that is..)