| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:27 PM |
Re: Watching Near Jamaica
|
Quote:
Yes, its showing (the GFDL) a 150 knot 950 mb storm at 120. I am not buying that solution at the moment.....at least not yet. Most of the 12Z models are not really developing the system much at all in the 144 time frame. This may be why the Euro is going with the solution HF pointed out earlier, with a split system; one going NE and the other hanging back in the Caribbean until next weekend. It also may be why the CMC is shooting the system NNE real fast, and more than likely too strong.
Ok... hold the phone.
150kts at 950mb is not 150kts at the surface. It's 120kts (using 80% reduction which I think is appropriate at 950mb)... which is "only" cat 4, not cat 5. Not that that is much better.
The current GFDL kind of frightens me in terms of the movement - turning it NNW toward... well, toward ME...
ETA: scottsvb: I think this system will only go over the western tip of Cuba, if that.
Hmm... looking at the visible loop on FNMOC... it looks like it's moving northward already, but that is probably just because it is still forming.