Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 15 2005 07:17 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica

I don't think the 20% reduction from 950mb winds for max intensity is appropriate in this case, considering that the pressure drops to around 898mb in the 12Z GFDL and the eyewall pressure would be quite a bit lower than 950mb in such a system. Based on the pressure forecast (the lowest I've ever seen from the GFDL), it is forecasting a cat 5 storm. Obviously, that doesn't mean it is going to happen, but we can safely say that the GFDL model thinks conditions will be favorable for intensification.

The latest SHIPS model only brings it up to around 80 knots.


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