Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 15 2005 03:17 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica

I don't think the 20% reduction from 950mb winds for max intensity is appropriate in this case, considering that the pressure drops to around 898mb in the 12Z GFDL and the eyewall pressure would be quite a bit lower than 950mb in such a system. Based on the pressure forecast (the lowest I've ever seen from the GFDL), it is forecasting a cat 5 storm. Obviously, that doesn't mean it is going to happen, but we can safely say that the GFDL model thinks conditions will be favorable for intensification.

The latest SHIPS model only brings it up to around 80 knots.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center