Quote:

---

here's the "Climatological Areas of Origin and Typical Hurricane Tracks by Month" from the NHC..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

October shows storms are most likely climatologically anyway to form right near where this storm is now and head north and then northeast with the prevailing track right over S. FL and up into LI area.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/october.gif

---

Thanks for digging up that graphic:


So... the NHC's graphic indicates that a tropical cyclone forming where one seems to be forming now could approach Central America... but other than striking the Yucatan Peninsula (and maybe in the general vicinity of Cabo Gracias a Dios) the storm would be unlikely to make landfall until it was somewhere east of Texas?