Early thinking is for a pretty climatological path for this one -- initially west for a few days at a relatively slow rate of speed before a turn toward the north and, ultimately, northeast. Everyone in the entire Gulf needs to watch this one, sure, but I would put the most likely region of impact from Cedar Key, FL southward...most likely between Sarasota and Key West. It's too early to have a lot of confidence in that, but that's what I'm looking at right now. We're getting pretty late in the season to see a monster storm, but there is precedence (Mitch 1998) for a very intense storm. I don't buy the GFDL's solution quite yet, but with a favorable upper-level pattern, upper lows well to the E & NE providing potential outflow channels, and underlying water temperatures & heat content that are still well up there, the potential is certainly there to see a major hurricane out of the last name on the list. Would bank on slow but steady intensification over the next day or two followed by the potential for some more rapid intensification thereafter. Landfall, if the above holds, is looking to be around this time next week, give or take a day or so.

Complications could arise if this one heads west faster than anticipated...it'd likely end up in the Bay of Campeche region if it did so, with all bets off from there.

Stay tuned...this is certainly one a lot of people are going to need to watch and potentially need to make preparations for this week.