from TAE afternoon discussion......

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS SAID ALL THIS
WEEK...THE VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO SEND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THANKS TO RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT...NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS DIRECTLY
IMPACTING US HERE IN THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL LIKELY WASHOUT
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS THE MAIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALIGNS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY CAUSING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME... THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPAWN A RATHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS
TIME...AS STATED EARLIER IN THE WEEK...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN US.

WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY FRIDAY... A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS...BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS AND NO MENTION OF THUNDER.

so looks like what someone wrote earlier..... the ohio valley will have a strong low up there.... if this sytem in carrib.. gets a going.... then it looks like late next week as clark said will be very busy for the eastern GOM..... just don't think we would have a strong cane that far up... maybe in western carrib... were the heat content is very warm... the gulf of mexico and the loop current is down some in heat