another gfdl monster looms in the western caribbean. we've seen this before. also seen a tendency in recent years for the big ones that form down there to go either left (mitch '98, keith '00) or right (lili '96, michelle '01) of florida. the only storm in recent years to hit florida from the south late in the season was irene in '99. like all the active years prior to this last couple we've had to contend with, there has been a persistent trend of tracks left and right of florida for the late season storms, while long-term climatology shows florida being the target more often (florida got hit by a whole lot of late season major hurricanes from the southwest and south in the first half of the 20th century). so anyhow, here we are again... situation with models showing erratic movment in the short term, and some long terms tracks suggesting a u.s. impact. from here it all depends on whether the trend reversal of storms favoring u.s. landfall tracks as opposed to staying out to sea or going into central america.. now applies to the october systems that frequent the caribbean.
preliminary judgment says that a westward drift with gradual and then rapid intensification, and a turn to the north, are what is in the cards. i'm thinking it will reach t.s. status tomorrow and hurricane around tuesday.. then jump categories rather quickly. best bet is that a hurricane wilma will peak around mid week and then weaken as it curves up into florida. it could wash up the coast if that shortwave out over the plains gets it well enough... the threat for more heavy rains in the northeast will have to be watched beyond whatever hurricane impacts may befall florida around friday.
rabbit's idea that it may get stuck in the caribbean isn't out to lunch, either. there have been enough cases where these things confine themselves to the caribbean that i wouldn't discredit a continued westward motion. it'll have to do it rather quickly, though, as ridging will build to the east by midweek and heights will begin falling to the northwest. if there isn't a quick exit, the pattern is setting up for a classic october recurvature.
we're at the end of what is traditionally the dangerous part of the hurricane season. upcoming wilma is likely to be the last big shot. of course, we have no idea what greek letter names will do to hurricanes....
HF 2235z15october