HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Oct 16 2005 01:20 AM
Re: wilma on the way

ssts... i use those with caution. seen enough atlantic storms over waters that supposedly couldn't support them maintain or even intensify in a baroclinic environment while over subpar waters. i believe the tropical cyclone threshold is really closer to 75-77F/24-25C. to get a mature, tropical hurricane in a marginal environment you probably do need the traditional 27C/80F, but there are enough exceptions in the subtropics early and late in the season that i don't really take it as a rule of thumb.
as far as those really warm ssts pools go, and the ocean layer depth, and all that... those are nice to know to fine tune intensity forecasts... i won't give them more than that. there seems to be a bit of intensity lag between a storm's energy source and how quickly it intensifies. environmental conditions also seem to really set the intensity threshold on a storm more than it's potential intensity as dictated by ssts.
just some observations... i'm sure tip and clark have more scientifically sound ways of explaining this stuff.
HF 0520z16october



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