dave foster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 17 2005 02:48 AM
Re: wilma on the way

Quote:

Correction: the perceived axis of rotation appears to be NE of where the current impressive, albeit small area of very intense convection is occurring; should this persist inside the large circumvellate, I suspect if possible we could have a center refix...




Yes, the perceived axis of rotation does appear to be northeast of the convective blob and this is not the first time today. I have already seen it go through this cycle once today over approx. 18 hours and it now appears to be repeating the cycle. I have been following it on the map that Storm Hunter posted earlier today.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

I put the center at n17.5 w79.0. Check the point of convection at 0145z. What happens next, if the cycle is repeated, this bubbles up for three or four hours then swiftly moves to the southwest (where the current blob is now) and quickly disperses. It's as if the initial convection from the center gets to a certain level then gets sheared from the northeast.

These are just my observations for what it's worth.



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