Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 17 2005 03:18 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean

T'Bird, I think you meant to the right. The GFS 6z models, specifically the GFDL and the GFS, have shifted to the right. One thing to be aware of. At this time of year storms, if intensifying far enuf south early in the forecast period and moving slowly, can build a heat ridge to the north that forces them westward. This was true with Mitch and Keith (although Mitch had two strong ridges that combined north of him from the east and west). If this type of ridge pumps up, you won'ts see Wilma get further north than 20 degrees. Doubtful, but it can happen. Anyhow, 11 am should be out now, Cheers!! BTW Margie, I was watching the ridge and thought it was backing into the BOC also. But its moving quite slowly if at all.


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