| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:29 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
|
Quote:Quote:
IF you go by models, only one major model suggests a northward motion, and this is what concerns me for the US, but most of the models continue it westward.
Both the 06Z GFS and the 00Z CMC are showing a northward movement between the Yucatan and Cuba followed by a hook east into FL. The rest of the models show Wilma either clipping the tip of the Yucatan of fully impacting the Yucatan. GFDL is calling for possibly a Cat 4 again, though not even sustaining that until the Yucatan. I suspect now that we have a TS, we'll get better model initialization and we might start to see some more reliable (and less divergent) tracks coming out.
Amen!
I wrote an extensive post about this very subject matter late last night...
First off, the GFDL is parameterized off the GFS data so the tandem motion once one is established is not that surprising – just btw. They do vary some (usually) but in the long run, the GFDL and the GFS will tend to shake hands over TS motions, more frequently then either would agree with a different model group altogether.
Secondly, the right shift was entirely expected; moreover, it was expected to take place when Wilma finally established a better physical presents in the area, then subsequently as an interaction with the westerlies took place, a more realistic impression of events would unfold. The suspicion was that the models just had too weak of a system to deal with prior, so they shallowed her out – summarily inducing telemetry based on a ‘none-wilma’ environmental flow. That flow indeed would be across the Yucatan Peninsula in such a case, so naturally, seeing the even more westerly 00z GFS (which still did not have a solid fix in initialization or parametrics at that time) made a lot of sense.. But, at 06z we have a deeper initialization, more solid presentation and boom – the models are presto-wizzo angst for the NE Gulf again.
…The million dollar question for me is, ‘are there 06z runs of the ECM, UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC, SHIPS…etc?’ I imagine there are, ‘but are they available to the public’? If they are, I don’t know where to find them. My hunch is that these other models will begin shifting right at 12z – should be coming out shortly.