| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:53 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
|
Quote:
The NHC wrote: WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO"
Based upon this, there maybe an adjustment of the GFS and GFDL in the 12Z. So I believe these model runs will be more telling then the 06Z and maybe more similiar to the previous 00Z runs. So in my opinion, I would probably look for a slightly change in the GFDL and GFS to the west or left. It will be interesting to say the least. I think these runs should be out pretty soon..
Do you really tnink so? Do you think that a all of 40naut miles is significant enough to alter a track guidance by as much as 400 miles by day 6? Granted, small shifts initially can have a profound affect out in time, but the synoptics of the region do not support a w motion, provided Wilma is a deeper system. We'll see...
Also, this thing is incorporating a very large circumvellate... cu between the Caymans and Cuba are moving curvi-linearly within... This thing has a lot of room of profound intensification.